Signal trace · snack (cookie/baked goods)

Crumbl

Every press hit, ad, BSR data point, Instagram metric, and Claude thesis the pipeline used to score Crumbl. Click any signal to inspect the source.

passlast scored 7/13/2026
← Pipeline

At a glance

Founded
2017
HQ
Lindon, Utah
Total raised
—
Last round
—
Founders
Jason McGowan · Co-founder & CEO,Sawyer Hemsley · Co-founder & COO
Retailers
—
Instagram
@crumbl
TikTok
@crumbl

Rhymes with

Insomnia Cookies

Both are cookie-forward retail chains that scaled via a signature format (pink box weekly drops vs. late-night delivery) before any meaningful CPG shelf presence.

Jeff's verdict

Your vote biases future scoring. Hot = +8. Pass = -15.

Composite score
54/100
—
Score label
Research
69% confidence
Signals captured
9
5 sources live
Scoring runs
1
first run

Rubric breakdown

Traction & velocity
13/25
Team pedigree
10/20
Authenticity / fit
16/20
Capital signal (pre-raise)
8/15
Category timing
4/12
Defensibility
3/8
Scoring rationale
PASS. Crumbl is a mature $1B+ franchise cookie chain with 1,071 stores as of December 2024 (Wikipedia/Tavily), 10.8M TikTok followers, and 6.3M Instagram followers — this is not a pre-Series A opportunity and is well outside Jeff's pre-Seed/Seed sweet spot. Even setting aside stage, Crumbl is a retail franchise concept rather than a CPG food/bev brand sold through wholesale channels, and the Amazon presence is limited to gift cards plus a Dove x Crumbl beauty collab (BSR ~17,407 on the gift card). The company also reportedly took a 37% YoY sales drop from 2022 to 2023 with 10% corporate layoffs, signaling the growth story is contracting, not compounding.
Traction: 0 press · 30 ads · BSR Δ25% · TikTok 10,800,000 → 13/25
Authenticity: IG 6,343,818 · TT 10,800,000 · -4 Amazon reviews · 0 subreddits → 16/20
Capital: 0 funding press (penalty 3) · TM sweet-spot no · 30 ads → 8/15 (higher = pre-raise)
Category timing: snack (cookie/baked goods) trend flat · brand trend flat → 4/12
Out of food+bev scope — will not surface on pipeline.

Score history

  • Jul 13, 03:08 AM54
    69% confidence · Research

Signal sources

Press signal

SerpAPI · Google News · 0

No press signal signals captured.

Ad activity

Foreplay · 5
  • QuizGriz
    👉The Average Person Only Gets 11 Right. How Will You Do?🧠
    Media/news companyMedia/News
    foreplay.ad · live_ad · 75% conf · 7/13/2026
  • Gonggar Hiking
    Gonggar Hiking
    Clothing (Brand)Sporting GoodsFashion
    foreplay.ad · live_ad · 75% conf · 7/13/2026
  • Chico's
    Chico's
    Clothing (Brand)Fashion
    foreplay.ad · live_ad · 75% conf · 7/13/2026
  • Realize For Advertisers
    Realize For Advertisers
    BusinessBusiness/Professional
    foreplay.ad · live_ad · 75% conf · 7/13/2026
  • Meditation & Mantra: Slowdive
    Imagine waking up feeling refreshed & renewed... In just 5 minutes, every 3 days, you can: • Reduce stress and anxiety • Boost mood and energy Unlock the power of sound healing! Are you ready to transform your life?
    App pageApp/Software
    foreplay.ad · live_ad · 75% conf · 7/13/2026

Amazon traction

Keepa · Jungle Scout · 1
  • Best BSR 17407 · 90d improvement 25%
    B0FM4N9MHJ · BSR #17,407B0FWT3GV5S · BSR #56,106B0DTBT25WW · BSR #41,656
    keepa · amazon_bsr · 85% conf · 7/13/2026

Instagram

Apify · 1
  • @crumbl: 6,343,818 followers
    🍪 world's best desserts 🍰 unique flavors weekly 🍫 served fresh in our pink box 🧁 bringing people together 🇨🇦 @crumbl.ca 🇲🇽 @crumbl.mx 🇦🇺 @crumbl.au
    @crumbl · 6,343,818 followers · 3,140 posts · avg engagement 15,626
    apify.instagram · social_followers · 85% conf · 7/13/2026

TikTok

Apify · 1
  • @crumbl: 10,800,000 followers · 107,200,000 hearts · 1673 videos
    🍪 world's best desserts 🇨🇦 @Crumbl Canada 🇲🇽 @Crumbl Mexico 🇦🇺 @Crumbl Australia
    @crumbl · 10,800,000 followers · 107,200,000 hearts · 1,673 videos
    apify.tiktok · tiktok_followers · 80% conf · 7/13/2026

USPTO trademarks

USPTO TSDR · 0

No uspto trademarks signals captured.

Reddit organic

SerpAPI · reddit.com · 0

No reddit organic signals captured.

Google Trends

SerpAPI · google_trends · 0

No google trends signals captured.

AI thesis

Claude Opus 4.7 · 1
  • PASS. Crumbl is a mature $1B+ franchise cookie chain with 1,071 stores as of December 2024 (Wikipedia/Tavily), 10.8M TikTok followers, and 6.3M Instagram followers — this is not a pre-Series A opportunity and is well outside Jeff's pre-Seed/Seed sweet spot. Even setting aside stage, Crumbl is a retail franchise concept rather than a CPG food/bev brand sold through wholesale channels, and the Amazon presence is limited to gift cards plus a Dove x Crumbl beauty collab (BSR ~17,407 on the gift card
    verdict PASS
    claude.synthesis · thesis · 80% conf · 7/13/2026
●Reading live from Supabase deal_flow · brand_id crumbl · 9 signals on file.